very long terms.
Trump's tariffs could present a potential conflict between its mandate to keep prices stable and promote full employment.
the Fed’s caution is Trump’s own tariff agenda, which is highly likely to generate at least a temporary rise in inflation.
Tariffs could lead to inflation, economic slowdown.
These are very fundamental policy changes.
The level of the tariff increases announced so far is significantly larger than anticipated.
we would consider how far the economy is from each goal
For the time being, we are well positioned to wait for greater clarity.
The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.
There isn’t a modern experience of how to think about this.
Unemployment is likely to go up as the economy slows.