Clearly some of it, a good part of it, is coming from tariffs.
Progress is probably delayed for the time being.
Inflation has started to move up.
Inflation has started to move up now, we think, partly in response to tariffs.
Chances of a recession were extremely low — if you go back two months. It has moved up, but it's not high.
Uncertainty around the economic outlook has increased.
The net effect of these policy changes... encompasses an aggressive crackdown on immigration and mass layoffs of federal workers.
The core messaging from the January meeting, where Chair [Jerome] Powell emphasized the Fed was 'not in a hurry' to make adjustments to poli...
We are focused on separating the signal from the noise as the outlook evolves.
The path to sustainably returning inflation to our target has been bumpy, and we expect that to continue.
Uncertainty around the changes and their likely effects remains high.