Sylvester Turner: “I am told by sources that know a lot more about how the economy works than I do that the current surplus estimate of…”

“I am told by sources that know a lot more about how the economy works than I do that the current surplus estimate of $2.9 trillion over the next 10 years, $1.9 of which is in Social Security, which I think we have all agreed on both sides of the aisle we should not touch, but that other $1 trillion that we are arguing over as to what is the best use of it, is really a figure that is quite tenuous. In fact, I am told that if we take four of the assumptions that were used by the Congressional Budget Office to come up with that estimate of $2.9 trillion and we adjust those four assumptions only very slightly, the surplus would change from $2.9 billion over 10 years to a deficit once again. Those four factors that were mentioned are: if, instead of assuming the employment rate that the CBO assumed, if employment simply ends up being 1 percent less than they estimate, in other words, if the unemployment rate is 1 percent greater than the CBO estimates, it has a significant impact on the surplus. If spending goes up over the next 10 years, Federal spending, with inflation, rather than being down at the levels that we are struggling to maintain that were set in the balanced budget act of 1997, then part of that surplus will disappear.”