Matthew Russell: “It is a psychological fact of life that, when it comes to human beings, the best predictor of future behavior is past…”

“It is a psychological fact of life that, when it comes to human beings, the best predictor of future behavior is past behavior, period, end of story. Psychologists who study human behavior agree that past behavior is a useful marker for future behavior, but only under certain specific conditions. For example, high-frequency, habitual behaviors are more predictive than infrequent behaviors. Predictions work best if done over short periods of time, based upon these behaviors. The anticipated situation must be essentially the same as the past situation that activated the behavior in the first place. Also, the behavior did not change by corrective or negative action or feedback. The person must remain essentially unchanged in their consistent behavior. The person must be fairly consistent in his or her behaviors over time. Forensic psychologists that observe such behavior often use metaphor to warn of serious danger by referring to such individuals as ``a ticking time bomb'' or as one ``carrying a hand grenade, and it is just a matter of when the pin is pulled.'' What happens if we apply these same criteria to Iran's behavior? The result is the same. Psychologically, there is no reason to expect future behavioral change, given Iran's 36 years of bad behavior. The record of history since 1979 is clear with regard to Iran's actions with the West and, in particular, the United States.…”