On the recordMay 10, 2011
more than 2 months ago, a popular uprising in Egypt swept President Hosni Mubarak from power after 30 years in office. The Egyptian military is now charged with reforming that country's political system in preparation for parliamentary and Presidential elections. History teaches us this sort of transition happens in three phases, not two. First, the dictator falls. Next follows a weak interim government. Only then does a final permanent government enter the scene. We remember the French Revolution with the fall of Louis XVI, then the hopefulness of the French First Republic, and then finally the rise of Napoleon. We remember the October Revolution--first the fall of the czar, then the hopefulness of the interim Kerensky government, and finally the rise of the Soviet Union. Most recently we remember Iran--first the fall of the shah, then the hopefulness of the interim Bakhtiar government, and finally the rise of Khomeini. Today we are watching this sequence play out in Egypt. First Mubarak fell, then came the jubilation of Tahrir Square and the hopefulness of an interim military government, and now we are left to wonder what act 3 will bring. Will Egypt remain a strong U.S. ally in the region; will it uphold the Camp David peace treaty with Israel; will it commit to the rule of law and human rights at home; or will Egypt fall into the hands of the radical Muslim Brotherhood; will it drift toward Iran and embrace the enemies of Israel?…





