Mark Kirk: “Mr. Chairman, we have all heard of forecasting to estimate future spending by our government. Our experience with…”

“Mr. Chairman, we have all heard of forecasting to estimate future spending by our government. Our experience with forecasting the cost of entitlement spending shows wild inaccuracies. A classic example comes from forecasts we used on the spending under a new entitlement program to care for patients suffering from kidney failure. Under estimates before our Congress, Representatives were told 90,000 patients would enroll for taxpayer-funded dialysis by 1995. 90,000 patients enrolled in this new Federal entitlement program by 1985, 10 years earlier than expected. By 1995, there were 239,000 patients in the program, not the 90,000 estimated. Today, in fact, there are 400,000 patients in this program, so spending is wildly above that which was estimated when the program was voted on before this House. My point with the amendment before us is simple: we need better forecasts before we change or improve entitlement spending programs. We would do that if we started a process which every budget analyst fears, and that is called backcasting.”