The uncertain nature of the battle which is developing into a war of attrition, combined with the reality that Putin faces a mismatch between his ambitions and Russia's current conventional military capabilities, likely means the next few months could see us moving along a more unpredictable and potentially escalatory trajectory.
Avril Haines discusses the unpredictable nature of the war and Putin's military capabilities.
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It's our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks and instead may escalate. We assess Putin feels aggrieved the West does not give him proper deference and perceives this as a war he cannot afford to lose.
Our analysts assess that Putin is unlikely to be deterred by such setbacks and instead may escalate essentially doubling down to achieve Ukrainian disarmament neutrality to prevent it from further integrating with the U.S. and NATO.
Over-classification and the classification system generally has been a perennial issue I have found in government in my experience, and one that does require some work.
We are expected to produce apolitical, unvarnished intelligence to the President-elect.
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