On the recordDecember 14, 2011
I thank the Chair and I thank my colleagues. This is what JPMorgan Chase has said on expiring payroll tax cut and emergency unemployment benefits: For 2012, the more important issue is what happens to expiring stimulus measures. . . . Together, [the payroll tax cut and the emergency unemployment benefits] have lifted household disposable income by about $150 billion this year. If they expire as scheduled, consumption growth early next year would be challenged. . . . In our baseline view, the drag from tightening fiscal policy [including expiration of the payroll tax cut and emergency unemployment benefits] could subtract 1.5%-2.0% from GDP growth next year. Since GDP growth is only forecast at 2.5 to 3 percent, a reduction of 1.5 to 2 percent would be a dramatic reduction. This is what Mark Zandi, the chief economist of Moody's Analytics, said: If policymakers do nothing here, if Congress and the administration just sit on their hands and they do nothing, the odds are very high we'll go into recession early next year. . . . We have a payroll tax holiday, all of us. . . . We'd be in recession right now without it. . . . If they don't [extend] that, at the very minimum, we'll likely go into recession. I hope very much that colleagues are listening. I hope very much that we are able to proceed to address this matter of extending the payroll tax cut and of extending unemployment insurance. I think I want to end as I began.…





