If you assume each event has a 98 percent probability of success, the likelihood of mission success is 80 percent for this Apollo-like approach in comparison. The likelihood of mission success for NASA's current approach is 51 percent, not taking into account the launch vehicle maturity risk.
On the recordSeptember 17, 2019
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congress.govEditor's note · Context
Brooks discusses the lower success probability of NASA's current mission strategy.
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